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IMA Workshop 3:
Networks and the Population Dynamics of Disease Transmission
November 17-21, 2003


Probability and Statistics in Complex Systems: Genomics, Networks, and Financial Engineering, September 1, 2003 - June 30, 2004

Organizers:

Martina Morris
Departments of Sociology and Statistics
University of Washington
morrism@u.washington.edu
http://faculty.washington.edu/morrism/

Claudia Neuhauser
Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior
University of Minnesota
cneuhaus@cbs.umn.edu
http://www.cbs.umn.edu/eeb/faculty/NeuhauserClaudia.html

IMA Public Lecture:
Richard A. Tapia
Math at Top Speed: Breaking Myths in the Drag Racing Folklore

Infectious diseases are transmitted from person to person, so our understanding of disease transmission is rooted in a theory of population transmission dynamics. For Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) or Blood Borne Infections (BBIs), where transmission requires an exchange of body fluids, the structure of the contact network plays a particularly critical role. The contact network can be represented as a graph, where the persons are nodes, and the partnerships are edges. Simple mathematical models of disease transmission dynamics through such networks have provided a number of insights through simulation that have led to changes in STD control strategies. Much work has been done in the last 15 years to model HIV transmission, and to collect survey data on the partnership networks. But the link between data and models is still problematic. Random graph models, and the techniques for estimating them, are the natural solution. A class of statistical exponential family models for random graphs has recently been adapted from the spatial statistics literature for social networks. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques can be used for likelihood-based and Bayesian inference. MCMC can also be used to simulate the network for given parameters, thus linking the network data to the network simulation. This workshop will cover the recent advances in network modeling, with applications to disease prevention and other social science fields. Networks, and their associated population dynamics, have a broad range of applications in both the social and physical sciences. The natural audience includes statisticians, epidemiologists, graph theorists, sociologists, and those in bio-behavioral health, ecology and evolutionary biology.

WORKSHOP SCHEDULE
Monday Tuesday
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30 Coffee and Registration

Reception Room EE/CS 3-176

9:15 Douglas N. Arnold, Scot Adams, and Organizers Welcome and Introduction
9:30 Denis Mollison
Heriot-Watt, Edinburgh

Small Worlds and Giant Epidemics

Slides:   pdf

10:20
Discussion
10:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 Duncan J. Watts
Columbia University

Universal Behavior in a Generalized Model of Contagion

Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt

11:50
Discussion
12:00
Lunch Break
1:30 Stephen Eubank
Los Alamos National Laboratory

Structural Aspects of Massive Social Networks

Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt

2:20
Discussion
2:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00 SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
3:30 Group Photo here  
3:40

IMA Tea and more (with POSTER SESSION)
400 Lind Hall

David C. Bell
Affiliated Systems Corporation, Houston

The HIV Transmission Gradient

Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt

Rodney J. Dyer
Iowa State University
A Graph-Theoretic Analysis of Global Human Genetic Structure
Ken Eames
University of Cambridge
Contact Tracing and Disease Control
Simon D.W. Frost
University of California, San Diego
Simulation of Epidemiological Models on Networks
Matthew Salganik
Columbia University
Sampling and Estimation in Hidden Populations Using Respondent-Driven Sampling
Anne Schneeberger
Imperial College, London
Sacle-free Networks and Sexually Transmitted Diseases: A Description of Observed Patterns of Sexual Contacts in Britain and Zimbabwe
Markus Schwehm
Universität Tübingen
Stochastic Simulation of Epidemics on Large Contact Networks
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 18
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00 Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 Marie-Claude Boily
Imperial College, London

The Limits of Sexual Network Data: Implications for Mathematical Modelling of STI

Slides:   html    pdf    ps   ppt
Paper:   pdf

10:20
Discussion
10:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 Martina Morris
University of Washington
The Influence of Concurrent Partnerships on Network Structure and Transmission Dynamics
11:50
Discussion
12:00
Lunch Break
1:30 James Moody
Ohio State University

Epidemic Potential in Human Sexual Networks: Connectivity and The Development of STD Cores

Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt

2:20
Discussion
2:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00 SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
3:30 walk along the Mississippi, weather permitting
4:45 Mark S. Handcock and Jeremy Tantrum
University of Washington
Demonstration of Latent Space Models
409 Lind Hall
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00 Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 Phillipa Pattison
University of Melbourne

Neighbourhood-based Models for Social Networks: Model Specification Issues

Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt

10:20
Discussion
10:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 Garry Robins
The University of Melbourne, Australia
Exponential Random Graph (p*) Models for Social Networks: The Global Outcomes of Local Model Specifications
11:50
Discussion
12:00
Lunch Break
1:30 Richard Rothenberg
Emory University School of Medicine

Large Network Concepts and Small Network Characteristics

Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt

2:20
Discussion
2:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00 SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
4:00
409 Lind Hall
David R. Hunter
Penn State University

Fitting Exponential Random Graph Models via Maximum Likelihood

Slides:   pdf

6:00 Workshop Dinner Peking Garden Chinese Restaurant
2324 University Ave SE
Minneapolis, MN 55414
Phone (612) 623-3989
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00 Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 Mark S. Handcock
University of Washington
Social Networks Models: Inference and Degeneracy
10:20
Discussion
10:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 Peter Hoff
University of Washington

Mixed Effects Models for Network Data

Slides:   pdf

11:50
Discussion
12:00
Lunch Break
1:30 Tom A.B. Snijders
University of Groningen

Simulation-Based Statistical Inference for Evolution of Social Networks

Slides:   pdf

2:20
Discussion
2:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00 SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
5-6:30 IMA Reception IMA East, 400 Lind Hall
7:00 pm
Smith Hall 100
IMA Public Lecture: Richard A. Tapia
(CAAM) Rice University
Math at Top Speed: Breaking Myths in the Drag Racing Folklore
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00 Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 Alden S. Klovdahl
Australian National University
Big Worlds, Isolated Individuals: Some Characteristics of Social Networks of Ordinary People
10:20
Discussion
10:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 Stephen P. Borgatti
Boston College

Issues in Identifying Structurally important Nodes in Networks

Slides:   pdf
Paper:   pdf

11:50
Discussion
12:00 Mark E.J. Newman
University of Michigan

How the Structure of Contact Networks Affects Disease Propagation

Papers:
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0205009/
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0205405/
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0209450/
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0303183/

1:30 Mark E.J. Newman
University of Michigan
How the Structure of Contact Networks Affects Disease Propagation
2:20
Discussion
2:30 Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00 SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
3:30
Concluding Remarks by Organizers
3:40
End of Workshop

LIST OF CONFIRMED PARTICIPANTS

NAMEDEPARTMENTAFFILIATION
Scot AdamsInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Soohan AhnDepartment of Statistics Seoul National University
Yusuf Bilgin AltundasInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications Schlumberger-Doll
Greg AndersonSchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Sevgi AralDivision of STD Prevention Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Douglas ArnoldInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Donald AronsonInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Gerard AwanouInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Karen BallInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Antar BandyopadhyayInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Ajay Behl University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
David Bell Affiliated Systems, Inc.
Jeremy BellaySchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Julian BesagDepartment of Statistics University of Washington
Marie-Claude BoilyGroupe de recherche en épidémiologie Laval University
Stephen BorgattiOrganization Studies Department Boston College
Maury BramsonSchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Olga BrezhnevaInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Carter ButtsDepartment of Sociology University of California, Irvine
Kathleen CarleyDepartment of Social and Decision Sciences Carnegie Mellon University
Francesca ChiaromonteDepartment of Statistics The Pennsylvania State University
Laura ChiharaDepartment of Mathematics Carleton College
Meggan Craft University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Amy DavidowPreventive Medicine and Community Health UMDNJ-New Jersey Medical School
Elenna DugundjiFaculty of Social and Behavioral Sciences Universiteit van Amsterdam
Rodney DyerEcology, Evolution and Organismal Biology Iowa State University
Ken EamesDepartment of Zoology University of Cambridge
Martin EichnerInstitut for Medical Biometrie Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen
Stephen EubankComputer and Computational Sciences Division Los Alamos National Laboratory
Shmuel FriedlandDepartment of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science University of Illinois, Chicago
Simon FrostDepartment of Pathology University of California, San Diego
Tim GaroniInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Lael GatewoodDepartment of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Steve GoodreauCenter for Statistics and the Social Sciences University of Washington
Balaji GopalakrishnanInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Priscilla GreenwoodDepartment of Mathematics Arizona State University
Deven HamiltonDepartment of Sociology University of Washington
Chuan-Hsiang HanInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Mark HandcockDepartment of Statistics University of Washington
Kristen Hassmiller LichSchool of Public Health University of Michigan
Jenny Heathcote Carleton College
Peter HoffDepartment of Statistics University of Washington
David HunterDepartment of Statistics The Pennsylvania State University
Valerie IshamDepartment of Statistics University College
Naresh JainSchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Ann JollyHealth Canada University of Ottawa
Lili JuInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Christina KendziorskiDepartment of Biostatistics and Medical Informatic University of Wisconsin, Madison
Benjamin KerrDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Mohammad KhanDepartment of Mathematics Kent State University
Dohyun KimDepartment of Statistics Seoul National University
Alden KlovdahlSociology, School of Social Sciences Australian National University
Thomas KurtzDepartment of Mathematics University of Wisconsin, Madison
Priscilla MacansantosDepartment of Mathematics University of the Philippines Baguio
Anders Martin-LofDepartment of Mathematics University of Stockholm
Richard McGeheeSchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Denis MollisonSchool of Mathematical and Computer Sciences Heriot-Watt University
James MoodyDepartment of Sociology The Ohio State University
Martina MorrisDepartment of Sociology and Statistics University of Washington
Stephen Muth Quintus-ential Solution
Haewon NamInstitute of Mathematics and Statistics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Claudia NeuhauserSchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Mark NewmanDepartment of Physics University of Michigan
Michael NewtonDepartment of Statistics University of Wisconsin, Madison
Amir NiknejadDepartment of Mathematics University of Illinois, Chicago
Arjendu PattanayakDepartment of Physics Carleton College
Phillipa PattisonDepartment of Psychology University of Melbourne
Lea PopovicInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Grzegorz RempalaDepartment of Mathematics University of Louisville
Valencia RempleCentre for Disease Control University of British Columbia
Garry RobinsDepartment of Psychology University of Melbourne
Richard RothenbergDepartment of Family and Preventive Medicin Emory University
Matthew SalganikDepartment of Sociology Columbia University
Fadil SantosaInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Arnd ScheelSchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Anne SchneebergerDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Imperial College London
Dave Schruth University of Washington
Markus SchwehmDepartment of Computer Architecture Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen
Carl SimonDepartment of Mathematics University of Michigan
Tom SnijdersDepartment of Sociology Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen
Jeremy TantrumDepartment of Statistics University of Washington
Richard TapiaDepartment of Mathematics Rice University
Robert TrotterDepartment of Anthropology Northern Arizona University
Jing WangInstitute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Nan WangDepartment of Computer Science University of Maryland
Christopher WarrenDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan
Stanley WassermanDepartment of Psychology University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Duncan WattsDepartment of Sociology Columbia University
Stephen WillsonDepartment of Mathematics Iowa State University
Yuhong YangDepartment of Statistics Iowa State University
Ofer ZeitouniSchool of Mathematics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Zhiwei ZhangSubstance Abuse, Mental Health and Criminal Justice University of Chicago
Jun ZhaoInstitute of Mathematics and its Application University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
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