Institute for Mathematics and its Applications University of Minnesota 114 Lind Hall 207 Church Street SE Minneapolis, MN 55455 
20102011 Program
See http://www.ima.umn.edu/20102011/ for a full description of the 20102011 program on Simulating Our Complex World: Modeling, Computation and Analysis.
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400  
11:15am12:15pm  Data analysis and uncertainty quantification of inverse problems  Luis Tenorio (Colorado School of Mines)  Lind Hall 305  PS 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400  
2:30pm3:30pm  Math 8994: Discontinuous Galerkin methods: An introduction  Accuracy and superconvergence  Bernardo Cockburn (University of Minnesota)  Lind Hall 305 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400  
1:25pm2:25pm  Learning on manifolds  Fatih M. Porikli (Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories)  Lind Hall 305  IPS 
All Day  Tutorials Chairs: Michael P. Brenner (Harvard University) and Clint N. Dawson (University of Texas at Austin)  W4.1115.11  
8:00am8:30am  Tutorial registration and coffee  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
8:30am10:00am  Tutorial Lecture: Climate Science, Waves and PDE's for the Tropics  Andrew J. Majda (New York University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
10:00am10:30am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
10:30am12:00pm  Tutorial Lecture: Numerical Modeling of Ocean Circulation  Robert L. Higdon (Oregon State University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
12:00pm1:30pm  Lunch  W4.1115.11  
1:30pm3:30pm  Tutorial Lecture: Challenges in Global Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling  Mauricio Santillana (Harvard University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
3:30pm5:00pm  Tutorial Lecture: Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences  Margot Gerritsen (Stanford University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
All Day  Main Workshop Begins Morning Chair: Susanne C. Brenner (Louisiana State University) Afternoon Chair: Malgorzata Peszynska (Oregon State University)  W4.1115.11  
8:00am8:45am  Workshop registration and coffee  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
8:45am9:00am  Welcome to the IMA  Fadil Santosa (University of Minnesota)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
9:00am10:00am  Computational Simulation of Long term Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide and other Energy Wastes  Todd Arbogast (University of Texas at Austin)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
10:00am10:15am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
10:15am11:15am  The need for Fully Coupled Earth and Human Systems  Eugenia Kalnay (University of Maryland)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
11:15am11:30am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
11:30am12:30pm  Comparatively Concise Collection of Computing Challenges for Comprehending Climate Change  Philip W. Jones (Los Alamos National Laboratory)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
12:30pm2:00pm  Lunch  W4.1115.11  
2:00pm3:00pm  Numerical Simulations of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions  Darcy E. Ogden (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
3:00pm3:15pm  Group Photo  W4.1115.11  
3:30pm5:30pm  Reception and Poster Session Poster submissions welcome from all participants Instructions  Lind Hall 400  W4.1115.11  
Coupling of NavierStokes/Darcy flow with transport  Aycil Cesmelioglu (University of Minnesota)  
A HighOrder FiniteVolume Scheme for the Dynamical Core of Weather and Climate Models  Christiane Jablonowski (University of Michigan)  
Modeling of tsunami wave generation  Dimitrios Mitsotakis (University of Minnesota)  
Meridional Asymmetries in Geophysical Flows  Iordanka N. Panayotova (Old Dominion University)  
An Investigation of the Forerunner Surge Produced by Hurricane Ike on the Texas and Louisiana Shelf  Joannes Jacobus Westerink (University of Notre Dame)  
Separation of Time Scales in fast rotation and weak stratification  Beth A. Wingate (Los Alamos National Laboratory) 
All Day  Morning Chair: Margot Gerritsen (Stanford University) Afternoon Chair: Robert L. Higdon (Oregon State University)  W4.1115.11  
8:30am9:00am  Coffee  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
9:00am10:00am  Mathematical Strategies for Filtering Turbulent Dynamical Systems  Andrew J. Majda (New York University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
10:00am10:15am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
10:15am11:15am  Climate Risk Modeling  James Michael Done (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR))  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
11:15am11:30am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
11:30am12:30pm  Methane in subsurface: resource and hazard. Towards hybrid mathematical models and computational solutions  Malgorzata Peszynska (Oregon State University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
12:30pm2:00pm  Lunch  W4.1115.11  
2:00pm3:00pm  Statistical and computational aspects of subsurface imaging  Peter K. Kitanidis (Stanford University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
3:00pm3:15pm  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
3:15pm4:15pm  Computing Hurricane Ike Waves, Forerunner, and Surge: Slow and Fast Flow Processes from the Gulf to LouisianaTexas Shelf to Houston  Joannes Jacobus Westerink (University of Notre Dame)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
7:00pm8:00pm  Recommender Systems for Fun and Profit  Chris Volinsky (AT&T Laboratories  Research)  Willey Hall 175  PUB4.13.11 
7:00pm8:00pm  IMA Public Lecture: Chris Volinsky (AT&T LabsResearch), Recommender Systems for Fun and Profit  Willey Hall 175  W4.1115.11 
All Day  Morning Chair: Alain Pumir (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)) Afternoon Chair: Clint N. Dawson (University of Texas at Austin)  W4.1115.11  
8:30am9:00am  Coffee  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
9:00am10:00am  Separation of Time Scales with fast rotation and weak stratification and some ideas for exascale computing  Beth A. Wingate (Los Alamos National Laboratory)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
10:00am10:15am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
10:15am11:15am  Parametrized Multiscale Momentum Exchanges between Waves, Currents, and Whitecapping  Juan Mario Restrepo (University of Arizona)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
11:15am11:30am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
11:30am12:30pm  Projecting future global sea level. Really?  David Michael Holland (New York University)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
12:30pm2:00pm  Lunch  W4.1115.11  
2:00pm3:00pm  From aerosols to rain drops: the role of turbulence in cloud microphysics.  Alain Pumir (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS))  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
3:00pm3:30pm  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
3:40pm4:40pm  Joint IMA/School of Math Ordway  PIRE Lecture: Felix Otto
(Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig), Pattern Formation and Partial Differential Equations Video (flv)  Lind Hall 305  W4.1115.11  
5:00pm7:30pm  Social Event at Campus Club Bar  Campus Club Bar 4th Floor Coffman Memorial Union 6126249136 
W4.1115.11 
8:30am9:00am  Coffee  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
9:00am10:00am  Tackling the numerical challenges of futuregeneration climate models: Highorder methods, nonhydrostatic designs, variableresolution and cubedsphere grids, and how to test models  Christiane Jablonowski (University of Michigan)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
10:00am10:15am  Break  Keller Hall 3176  W4.1115.11  
10:15am11:15am  Modeling Tsunamis and other hazardous geophysical flows.  David L. George (U.S. Geological Survey)  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
11:15am11:20am  Closing remarks  Keller Hall 3180  W4.1115.11 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400  
2:30pm3:30pm  Math 8994: Discontinuous Galerkin methods: An introduction  The effect of the nonconformity of the meshes  Bernardo Cockburn (University of Minnesota)  Lind Hall 305 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400  
1:25pm2:25pm  What can we learn from software failure data?  Veena B. Mendiratta (AlcatelLucent)  Lind Hall 305  IPS 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400  
11:15am12:15pm  A factorization method for nonsymmetric linear operator: enlargement of the functional space while preserving hypocoercivity  Maria Pia Gualdani (University of Texas at Austin)  Lind Hall 305  PS 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400  
2:30pm3:30pm  Math 8994: Discontinuous Galerkin methods: An introduction  Convectiondiffusion  Bernardo Cockburn (University of Minnesota)  Lind Hall 305 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
10:45am11:15am  Coffee break  Lind Hall 400 
Event Legend: 

IPS  Industrial Problems Seminar 
PS  IMA Postdoc Seminar 
PUB4.13.11  Chris Volinsky: Recommender Systems for Fun and Profit 
W4.1115.11  Societally Relevant Computing 
Todd Arbogast (University of Texas at Austin)  Computational Simulation of Long term Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide and other Energy Wastes 
Abstract: Currently, mankind extracts most of the fuel for the global economy from underground resources, including oil, gas, and uranium deposits. The byproducts of consuming this fuel enter the atmosphere or remain on the surface. After years of waste buildup, this practice is no longer tenable. Clean technologies that sharply reduce CO2 emissions and other pollutants from power plants are essential bridge technologies on the path towards a sustainable energy future. A critical step will be the ability to cycle fuel byproducts back to their original home: the Earth's subsurface. Applications of this concept include storing CO2 in deep geologic formations and securing radioactive materials in appropriately engineered repositories. It is difficult to design and manage geologic sequestration efforts. Predictive computational simulation may be the only means to account for the lack of complete characterization of the subsurface environment, the multiple scales of the various interacting processes, the large areal extent of reservoirs, and the need for long time predictions. This talk will discuss background issues, and recent work by the author on multiscale methods for computing flow fields in porous media with extreme natural heterogeneities. The methods are suitable for parallel computation through the use of nonoverlapping domain decomposition mortar methods with a restricted set of degrees of freedom on the interfaces. We devise an effective but purely local multiscale method that incorporates information from homogenization theory. We also use this decomposition method approach to devise effective preconditioners that incorporate exact coarsescale information to iteratively solve the full finescale problem.  
Aycil Cesmelioglu (University of Minnesota)  Coupling of NavierStokes/Darcy flow with transport 
Abstract: We study a convectiondiffusion type transport equation that is fully coupled to the NavierStokes/Darcy flow via velocity field and concentration. This problem is related to the groundwater contamination through rivers. On the interface, we accept balance of forces, continuity of the flux and the BeaversJosephSaffman condition. Existence of a weak solution is shown by a method based on Galerkin approach in time. Furthermore, for the special case where the coupling is only one way via the velocity, we provide numerical analysis and simulations with methods based on continuous and discontinuous Galerkin methods.  
James Michael Done (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR))  Climate Risk Modeling 
Abstract: Society is entering a new era of catastrophes in which natural hazards are causing more damage than in the past. Recent years have seen a steep rise in economic and insured losses from weather and climate related hazards, largely due to a significant increase in exposure, but the likely scenario of the hazards themselves becoming more damaging in the future will only add to increased societal vulnerability. Recent failures in current risk management strategies have highlighted the need for a step change in our understanding of weather and climate risk. Earth system models are poised to bring about this change by providing new and independent risk assessments with respect to traditional practice based in historical observations. This talk will address the opportunities and challenges of incorporating dynamical models into climate risk assessment with a focus on tropical cyclone risk. Results will be presented from collaborations between NCAR and the reinsurance and energy industries to understand tropical cyclone risk and resulting impacts and losses. We are at the dawn of this new era of weather and climate risk assessment and these initial developments hold profound possibilities for the future. I will address the mathematical and computational challenges in achieving this step change in our understanding of climate risk. 

David L. George (U.S. Geological Survey)  Modeling Tsunamis and other hazardous geophysical flows. 
Abstract: Mathematical and computational modeling plays an important role in
many aspects of risk mitigation for tsunamis and other hazardous geophysical flows (flooding, landslides and debris flows). Modeling these phenomena accurately and efficiently requires specialized numerical methods and software, as they present unique computational challenges. For instance, with tsunami modeling, the vastly different spatial
scales between propagation over the ocean and the study of a small
region of the coast makes the use of adaptive mesh refinement
crucial. Studying inundation requires wetting/drying algorithms
that can handle the depth going to zero at the shoreline. Wellbalanced
methods must be used to accurately capture waves on the open ocean,
where their amplitude is very small relative to the fluid depth. Modeling landslides and debris flows requires the development of suitable mathematical models that can account for the complicated internal stresses of a flowing mixture of solid particles and fluid. The spectrum of flows, ranging from landslides and debris flows to tsunamis, are often modeled with depthaveraged equations of which the shallow water equations are the simplest example. Depthaveraged models for landslides requires additional equations to account for the solid volume fraction and porefluid pressure. However, these equations present similar mathematical difficulties. I will discuss some of these models, challenges and algorithms. I will also introduce the GeoClaw software, a specialized version of Clawpack that is aimed at solving these realworld geophysical flow problems over topography. I will show results from some recent tsunamis and potential future events, and discuss some of the ways modeling can be used to assess hazards. 

Margot Gerritsen (Stanford University)  Tutorial Lecture: Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences 
Abstract: Whether modeling is performed on a local, regional or global scale, for scientific or engineering purposes, uncertainty is inherently present due to lack of data and lack of understanding of the underlying phenomena and processes taking place. In this tutorial, we will discuss tools available for modeling uncertainty of complex Earth systems as well as the impact it has on practical geoengineering decision problems. 

Maria Pia Gualdani (University of Texas at Austin)  A factorization method for nonsymmetric linear operator: enlargement of the functional space while preserving hypocoercivity 
Abstract: We present a factorization method for nonsymmetric linear operators: the method allows to enlarge functional spaces while preserving spectral properties for the considered operators. In particular, spectral gap and related convergence towards equilibrium follow easily by hypocoercivity and resolvent estimates. Applications of this theory on several kinetic equations will be presented.  
Robert L. Higdon (Oregon State University)  Tutorial Lecture: Numerical Modeling of Ocean Circulation 
Abstract: The general circulation of the ocean plays a major role in the global climate system, and the local circulation in nearshore regions is also of substantial scientific and societal interest. This talk will give an introduction to some of the physical and computational issues that arise when ocean circulation is modeled numerically. These include motivations for ocean modeling; length, time, and mixing scales; the choice of vertical coordinate; governing equations; multiple time scales and timestepping; spatial grids and discretization schemes; and some current work and upcoming issues.  
David Michael Holland (New York University)  Projecting future global sea level. Really? 
Abstract: Global sea level has fluctuated significantly in the past, over glacial and interglacial time scales. Such variations arise from the slow buildup and even more rapid collapse of major ice sheets, including the present day Greenland and Antarctic Sheets. In this presentation mechanisms of ice sheet collapse are reviewed and implications for society over the next century and beyond are explored. Both ongoing observational and computational efforts aimed at addressing sea level change are surveyed. Areas for scientific advance are discussed.  
Christiane Jablonowski (University of Michigan)  A HighOrder FiniteVolume Scheme for the Dynamical Core of Weather and Climate Models 
Abstract: Joint work with Paul A. Ullrich (University of Michigan). The future generation of atmospheric models used for weather and climate predictions will likely rely on both highorder accuracy and Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) techniques in order to properly capture the atmospheric features of interest. We present our ongoing research on developing a set of conservative and highly accurate numerical methods for simulating the atmospheric fluid flow (the socalled dynamical core). In particular, we have developed a fourthorder finitevolume scheme for a nonhydrostatic dynamical core on a cubedsphere grid that makes use of an implicitexplicit RungeKuttaRosenbrock time integrator and Riemann solvers. The poster surveys the algorithmic steps, presents results from idealized dynamical core test cases and outlines the inclusion of AMR into the model design. 

Christiane Jablonowski (University of Michigan)  Tackling the numerical challenges of futuregeneration climate models: Highorder methods, nonhydrostatic designs, variableresolution and cubedsphere grids, and how to test models 
Abstract: Joint work with Paul A.Ullrich and Kevin A. Reed (University of Michigan). Numerical predictions of highimpact local weather events and the vastly growing demand for regionallocal climate predictions are grand challenge problems and one of the main drivers for novel atmospheric models that are ready for highperformance computing architectures. Futuregeneration atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) and their fluid dynamics components (the socalled dynamical cores) will likely rely on both highorder accuracy and variableresolution techniques in order to seamlessly capture the multiscale flow regimes. The talk surveys the design of conservative and highly accurate numerical methods for an AdaptiveMeshRefinement (AMR) dynamical core of a GCM. In particular, the talk discusses a fourthorder finitevolume scheme for a nonhydrostatic dynamical core on a cubedsphere grid that makes use of an implicitexplicit RungeKuttaRosenbrock time integrator and Riemann solvers. The talk overviews the algorithmic steps, presents results from idealized dynamical core test cases, outlines the inclusion of AMR into the model design and discusses strategies how to test and intercompare GCMs. 

Philip W. Jones (Los Alamos National Laboratory)  Comparatively Concise Collection of Computing Challenges for Comprehending Climate Change 
Abstract: Climate models are used to understand the complex interactions that result in climate change as well as provide projections of future climate change and its impacts on society. I will give a broad overview of current climate and Earth system models, including the diversity of algorithms represented, the complexity of the models and their application to both science and policy problems. Future demands on climate model applications as well as a changing computing landscape will require rethinking the design and implementation of our models. I will describe some of the bigger challenges and potential paths forward.  
Eugenia Kalnay (University of Maryland)  The need for Fully Coupled Earth and Human Systems 
Abstract: Joint work with
Matthias Ruth^{1}, Ning Zeng^{1},
Safa Motesharrei^{1}, and Jorge Rivas^{2}. Earth System Models (ESM) designed to study climate change should include a fully coupled Human model, with submodels such as Population, Energy, Agriculture and Fisheries, Water, as well as environmental sources and sinks. Specifically, fully coupled means that subcomponents of a model (e.g., the atmosphere and the ocean) are coupled in a twoway fashion: for example, the atmosphere can change the ocean and in turn is affected by the feedback of this change. The importance of having positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks is obvious: the phenomenon of El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) is the result of such feedbacks, and thus, oneway coupled oceanatmosphere models (used until about 1990) were not able to reproduce ENSO. ESMs are currently much more comprehensive than they used to be (e.g., the Community ESM, CESM), and include fully coupled landoceanatmosphere components. Vegetation models, which used to influence the climate of the model but without feedbacks (oneway coupling), are now also driven by the climate (twoway coupling). However, there is an important component of the Earth System (ES) that is not included in the ESMs: the Human System, which in reality is not only strongly coupled but actually dominates many components of the ES. For example, the human appropriated portion of the Natural Primary Productivity (HANPP) is estimated to be at least 25%, and about 60% is affected by human activities. Nevertheless, population remains a taboo subject in the discussions and policies on climate change. In this talk we discuss how to develop a fully coupled ESMHuman model in order to be able to study the role of population in climate change, and the new mathematical problems that may arise. ^{1}University of Maryland, ^{2}University of Minnesota 

Peter K. Kitanidis (Stanford University)  Statistical and computational aspects of subsurface imaging 
Abstract: The subsurface is where most of the available freshwater is stored; in the United States, groundwater is the primary source of water for over 50 percent of Americans, and roughly 95 percent for those in rural areas. Cleaning up the surface from industrial and nuclear wastes is quite challenging. A major impediment in studying processes in the subsurface and in managing resources is that it is difficult to achieve accurate and reliable imaging, i.e., identification of properties, of geologic formations. Some of the difficulties one has to overcome are heterogeneity of subsurface environments that manifests itself in complex ways and at all spatial scales, field measurements that are not only expensive to get but are affected by disturbances and factors that are hard to manage or model, and the nonuniqueness of the mapping from observables to the underlying formation properties. In this talk, we will discuss stochastic methods to explore the range of solutions or “images” that are consistent with measurements and to quantify the uncertainty in predictions. We will also discuss computational challenges posed by the need to process large data sets and to resolve variability at small scales.  
Andrew J. Majda (New York University)  Mathematical Strategies for Filtering Turbulent Dynamical Systems 
Abstract: An important emerging scientific issue in many practical problems ranging from climate and weather prediction to biological science involves the real time filtering and prediction through partial observations of noisy turbulent signals for complex dynamical systems with many degrees of freedom as well as the statistical accuracy of various strategies to cope with the “curse of dimensions”. The speaker and his collaborators, Harlim (North Carolina State University), Gershgorin (CIMS Post doc), and Grote (University of Basel) have developed a systematic applied mathematics perspective on all of these issues. One part of these ideas blends classical stability analysis for PDE's and their finite difference approximations, suitable versions of Kalman filtering, and stochastic models from turbulence theory to deal with the large model errors in realistic systems. Many new mathematical phenomena occur. Another aspect involves the development of test suites of statistically exactly solvable models and new NEKF algorithms for filtering and prediction for slowfast system, moist convection, and turbulent tracers. Here a stringent suite of test models for filtering and stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on NEKF algorithms in order to systematically correct both multiplicative and additive bias in an imperfect model. As briefly described in the talk, there are both significantly increased filtering and predictive skill through the NEKF stochastic parameter estimation algorithms provided that these are guided by mathematical theory. The recent paper by Majda et al (Discrete and Cont. Dyn. Systems, 2010, Vol. 2, 441486) as well as a forthcoming introductory graduate text by Majda and Harlim (Cambridge U. Press) provide an overview of this research.  
Andrew J. Majda (New York University)  Tutorial Lecture: Climate Science, Waves and PDE's for the Tropics 
Abstract: Geophysical flows are a rich source of novel problems for applied mathematics and the contemporary theory of partial differential equations. The reason for this is that many physically important geophysical flows involve complex nonlinear interaction over multiscales in both time and space so developing simplified reduced models which are simpler yet capture key physical phenomena is of central importance. In midlatitudes, the fact that the rotational Coriolis terms are bounded away from zero leads to a strict temporal frequency scale separation between slow potential vorticity dynamics and fast gravity waves; this physical fact leads to new theorems justifying the quasigeostrophic midlatitude dynamics even with general unbalanced initial data for both rapidly rotating shallow water equations and completely stratified flows. At the equator, the tangential projection of the Coriolis force from rotation vanishes identically so that there is no longer a time scale separation between potential vortical flows and gravity waves. This has profound consequences physically that allow the tropics to behave as a waveguide with extremely warm surface temperatures. The resulting behavior profoundly influences longer term midlatitude weather prediction and climate change through hurricanes, monsoons, El Nino, and global teleconnections with the midlatitude atmosphere. How this happens through detailed physical mechanisms is one of the most important contemporary problems in the atmosphereocean science community with a central role played by nonlinear interactive heating involving the interaction of clouds, moisture, and convection. The variable coefficient degeneracy of the Coriolis term at the equator alluded to earlier leads to both important new physical effects as well as fascinating new mathematical phenomena and PDE’s. In this equatorial context, new multiscale reduced dynamical PDE models are even relatively recent in origin. After a brief discussion of the observational record as background, this lecturer surveys the remarkable new hyperbolic systems that have emerged recently in applications including their physical properties, applied mathematical and rigorous mathematical theory. These last topics include novel relaxation limits for climate models with active moisture and new singular limits for hyperbolic PDE’s with variable coefficients. All of the references in this lecture can be found at .http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/majda/. 

Veena B. Mendiratta (AlcatelLucent)  What can we learn from software failure data? 
Abstract: Failure detection and fault correction are vital to ensure high quality software. During the development and deployment phases detected failures are commonly classified by severity and tracked to meet quality and reliability requirements. Besides tracking failures, this data can be analyzed and used to qualify the software and to control the development and maintenance process. Our work is focused on failure data collected during the development phase and explores what we can learn by analyzing this data. Change management systems log the failures detected and the code fixes to correct the underlying software defects. By applying software reliability models and statistical techniques to this defect data, we can answer questions such as the following: * Is the maintenance process increasing the software reliability? * Is the maintenance process under control? * How many failures are expected to occur in the field? * What is the expected time remaining to meet the reliability requirement? This presentation addresses these questions by using a methodology based on trend analysis, control charts and software reliability growth models. The methodology is applied to a large software system during various stages of testing including customer acceptance testing. What is new about this methodology is the combined use of control charts, trend analysis and software reliability models. 

Dimitrios Mitsotakis (University of Minnesota)  Modeling of tsunami wave generation 
Abstract: We propose a simple and computationally inexpensive model for the description of the sea bed displacement during an underwater earthquake, based on the finite fault solution for the slip distribution under some assumptions on the dynamics of the rupturing process. Once the bottom motion is reconstructed, we study waves induced on the free surface of the ocean using three different models approximating the Euler equations of the water wave theory. The developments of the present study are illustrated on the July 17, 2006 Java event.  
Darcy E. Ogden (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)  Numerical Simulations of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions 
Abstract: The violent nature of explosive volcanic eruptions makes understanding their behavior both imperative and extremely challenging. These dangerous natural phenomena threaten society in a variety of ways ranging from destruction of local communities to disrupting global air traffic to influencing global climate change. Our ability to mitigate the risks posed by volcanoes is hampered by our limited understanding of their controlling physics. The opacity and violence of eruptions makes them difficult and dangerous to measure directly. We therefore depend strongly on numerical models to study and understand eruptive dynamics. These models range in sophistication and computational expense depending on their purpose. Realtime hazard assessment requires parameterized models that can run quickly on a desktop computer during eruptions. On the other hand, 3D timedependent computational fluid dynamics models run on massively parallel supercomputers are necessary to capture and study the turbulent, multiphase flow that controls eruption behavior. This talk will discuss some of the computational issues and challenges currently faced by the volcanology community.  
Iordanka N. Panayotova (Old Dominion University)  Meridional Asymmetries in Geophysical Flows 
Abstract: Geostrophic turbulence on a surface of a rotating sphere (so called betaplane turbulence) has been simulated using the newly developed betasQG+1 numerical model. This model incorporates higher order terms beyond the standard quasigeostrophy. The domain occupied by the fluid has a channel geometry with 512 by 256 grid points, periodic boundary conditions in xdirection and rigid boundaries in ydirection. To better understand wavevortices dynamics both cases, with and without random forcing, are investigated. Both simulations start from identical random initial conditions and exhibit different dynamical properties. In the freely evolving case, adding a wave term that competes with inertia on larger scales produces high meridional asymmetry in eddies spatial and time scales. This novel asymmetry is added to the standard for the betaplane turbulence zonal asymmetry. The model in the forced regime exhibits not only anisotropy in eddies deformation radius, but also in their orientation. The warm anomalies are elongated in the northwestern direction, while the cold anomalies are elongated in the northeastern direction. As a result there is a meridional meandering in the formed zonal jets.  
Malgorzata Peszynska (Oregon State University)  Methane in subsurface: resource and hazard. Towards hybrid mathematical models and computational solutions 
Abstract: In the talk we describe two applications important for global climate
and energy studies: methane hydrates and coalbed methane. Methane
hydrates also known as "ice that burns" are present in large amounts
along continental slopes and in permafrost regions and, therefore, are
a possible source of energy and at the same time a potential
environmental hazard. Their evolution critically depends on how the
hydrate formation and dissociation affects the porescale properties.
This so far has been only modeled with adhoc phenomenological
approaches on top of the continuum models which account for multiple
flowing phases, energy conservation, and phase change with or without
latent heat. A similar situation arises in coalbed methane recovery
where the traditional models of multicomponent adsorption appear
inadequate to capture the dynamics of coupled porescale processes
involving matrix swelling, competitive adsorption between carbon
dioxide and methane, and adsorption hysteresis.
Both applications have had comprehensive computational realizations based on coupled nonlinear PDE systems whose analysis has not yet been carried out. More importantly, both call for broadening the scope of modeling tools from traditional continuum PDEbased models to include a variety of discrete models which help to understand processes at porescale and to formulate constitutive relationships useful at continuum scale. In the talk we outline challenges of traditional continuum models, present some porescale results, and introduce some promising hybrid modeling approaches. 

Fatih M. Porikli (Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories)  Learning on manifolds 
Abstract: A large number of natural phenomena can be formulated as inference on differentiable manifolds. More specifically in computer vision, such underlying notions emerge in multifactor analysis including feature selection, pose estimation, structure from motion, appearance tracking, and shape embedding. Unlike Euclidean spaces, differentiable manifolds does not exhibit global homeomorphism, thus, differential geometry is applicable only within the local tangent spaces. This prevents direct application of conventional inference and learning methods that require vector norms, instead, distances are defined through curves of minimal length connecting two points. Recently we introduced appearance based descriptors and motion transformations that exhibit Riemannian manifold structure on positive definite matrices and enable projections onto the tangent spaces. In this manner, we do not need to flatten the underlying manifold or discover its topology. For instance, by imposing weak classifiers on tangent spaces and establishing weighted sums via Karcher means, we bootstrap an ensemble of boosted classifiers with logistic loss functions for object classification. This talk will demonstrate promising results of manifold learning on human detection, regression tracking, unusual event analysis and affine pose estimation.  
Alain Pumir (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS))  From aerosols to rain drops: the role of turbulence in cloud microphysics. 
Abstract: Clouds contain fine water droplets in moist air, that may grow to form rain drops. A precise and quantitative understanding of the growth of droplets remains elusive, despite the fact that the essential physical mechanisms responsible for the process are known. In particular, the accepted scenario of rain formation has long rested on the notion of droplets of different sizes falling at different terminal velocities in a quiescent fluid, therefore colliding and coalescing. It has been realized that such approaches lead to wrong predictions of the time it takes for rain to form, in particular in warm clouds. The turbulent motion of air in clouds is likely to play an important role in the formation of rain drops. I will review in this talk the physical effects induced by turbulence, acting on particles that are much heavier than the surrounding fluids, such as water droplets in air. The main ones are preferential concentration  the very uneven distribution of droplets, as well as the formation of "caustics". These effects lead to a strong enhancement of collision rates, which can play an important role in enhancing the rate of drop formation in clouds. I will also discuss some of the current experimental efforts to document the role of turbulence in cloud microphysics. 

Juan Mario Restrepo (University of Arizona)  Parametrized Multiscale Momentum Exchanges between Waves, Currents, and Whitecapping 
Abstract: The challenge of producing practical models that accurately capture the interaction of waves and currents
is primarily a problem of the enormous spatiotemporal scales: on the Continental Shelf, we require capturing
dynamics that span seconds to seasons, and spatial structures spanning meters to basins. Using filtering
and asymptotics we have been able to develop a comprehensive model for waves and currents, that capture
the conservative portion of the dynamics. An important source of momentum exchanges between waves and currents are breaking events. These whitecapping events are shortlived yet not ignorable even on the very largest of spatiotemporal scales. We have developed a stochastic parametrization that models breaking events as sources of uncertainty in the Lagrangian paths of fluid parcels. Application of the projection to the Eulerian frame along with filtering yields their contribution to the dynamics of waves and currents. 

Mauricio Santillana (Harvard University)  Tutorial Lecture: Challenges in Global Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling 
Abstract: Understanding the globalscale dynamics of the chemical composition of our atmosphere is essential for addressing a wide range of environmental issues from air quality to climate change. Understanding this phenomenon enables us to evaluate and devise appropriate environmental policies, such as the Kyoto Protocol on global greenhouse gases emissions. Numerical modeling of global atmospheric chemical dynamics presents an enormous challenge associated with simulating hundreds of chemical species with time scales varying from milliseconds to years. In my talk, I will present an overview of the state of the art in global atmospheric chemistry modeling and will point out some of the mathematical challenges that need attention in this field.  
Luis Tenorio (Colorado School of Mines)  Data analysis and uncertainty quantification of inverse problems 
Abstract: We present exploratory data analysis methods to assess inversion estimates using simple examples based on classic l2 and l1regularization. These methods can be used to reveal the presence of systematic errors such as bias and discretization effects, or to validate assumptions made on the statistical model used in the analysis. The methods include: bound for randomized trace estimators, confidence intervals and bounds for the bias, resampling methods for model validation, and construction of training sets of functions with controlled local regularity.  
Chris Volinsky (AT&T Laboratories  Research)  Recommender Systems for Fun and Profit 
Abstract: In October 2006, Netflix kicked off a $1M competition by releasing 100 million movie ratings as a training set to be used to build a better recommendation system for their online movie rental business. This landmark data set generated intense interest from the statistics and machine learning communities, and attracted entries from over 3000 teams from academia and industry. In this talk, I will review our team's experience analyzing this data and document our journey towards winning a share of the million dollar prize. Some of the surprising lessons include the role of ensembles (of models and teams) in the drive for the top spot, the power of matrix decomposition techniques, and the interplay between collaboration and competitiveness during the contest.  
Joannes Jacobus Westerink (University of Notre Dame)  Computing Hurricane Ike Waves, Forerunner, and Surge: Slow and Fast Flow Processes from the Gulf to LouisianaTexas Shelf to Houston 
Abstract: Coastal Louisiana and Texas are characterized by tremendous complexity and variability in their geography, topography, bathymetry, continental shelf, estuarine systems, and surface roughness. Hurricane Ike significantly impacted both coastal Texas and Louisiana producing a storm surge of more than 5.3m in eastern Texas and more than 2.2 m in eastern Louisiana (more than 500 km away from the storm landfall location). Particularly important was that more than 2m of hurricane forerunner developed prior to the storm coming onto the continental shelf (more than 15 hours prior to landfall), while coastal winds were shore parallel or coming off of the land. The forerunner flooded much of western Louisiana and eastern Texas, and filled Galveston Bay in its entirety, reaching into the heart of Houston. The forerunner then propagated down the LouisianaTexas (LATEX) shelf as a free wave, passing Corpus Christi with an amplitude of more than 1m. The forerunner is the largest ever recorded. The rapid evolution of data collection systems allows the physical system to be accurately defined, and the rapid evolution of unstructured grid computational models allows these characteristics and the resulting waves and flows to be numerically resolved. The SWAN+ADCIRC unstructured grid modeling system has been developed to simulate fully coupled hurricane winds, windwaves, storm surge, tides and river flow in this complex region. This is accomplished by defining a domain and computational resolution appropriate for the relevant processes, specifying realistic boundary conditions, and implementing accurate, robust, and highly parallel unstructured grid algorithms for both the wind waves and the long wave current/storm surge/tide model. Basin to channel scale domains and high resolution grids which resolve features down to 30 meters and contain up to 3.3 million nodes have been developed. This modeling system is run on up to 4,096 processors and requires as little as 18 minutes of wall clock time per day of simulation. Hindcasts of the storm indicate an excellent match of measured wave and surge records. Numerical experiments indicate that the unprecedented forerunner was generated by very fast shore parallel currents driven by the early shore parallel winds that allow for a Coriolis driven set up to be pushed up against the coast. Achieving fast enough currents on the mid and outer shelf is vital for the driving mechanism to work. This in turn requires low frictional resistance which is consistent with the smooth and muddy LATEX shelf. 

Joannes Jacobus Westerink (University of Notre Dame)  An Investigation of the Forerunner Surge Produced by Hurricane Ike on the Texas and Louisiana Shelf 
Abstract: A large, unpredicted, water level increase appeared along a
substantial section of the western
Louisiana and northern Texas (LATEX) coasts 1224 hrs in
advance of the landfall of Hurricane
Ike (2008), with water levels in some areas reaching 3m above
mean sea level. During this time
the cyclonic wind field was largely shore parallel throughout
the region. A similar early water
level rise was reported for both the 1900 and the 1915
Galveston Hurricanes. The Ike forerunner
anomaly occurred over a much larger area and prior to the
primary coastal surge which was
driven by onshore directed winds to the right of the storm
track. We diagnose the forerunner
surge as being generated by Ekman setup on the wide and shallow
LATEX shelf by simulating the hindcast with
Coriolis turned on and off as well as with various frictional
formulations. The longer
forerunner time scale additionally served to increase water
levels significantly in narrow entranced
coastal bays. The forerunner surge generated a freely propagating continental shelf wave with greater than 1.4m peak elevation that travelled coherently along the coast to Southern Texas, and was 300km in advance of the storm track at the time of landfall. This was, at some locations, the largest water level increase seen throughout the storm, and appears to be the largest freelypropagating shelf wave ever reported. Ekman setupdriven forerunners will be most significant on wide, forecasting in these cases. Reference: Kennedy, A.B., U. Gravois, B.C. Zachry, J.J. Westerink, M.E. Hope, J.C. Dietrich, M.D. Powell, A.T. Cox, R.A. Luettich, R.G. Dean, "Origin of the Hurricane Ike Forerunner Surge," Geophysical Research Letters, In Press, 2011. 

Beth A. Wingate (Los Alamos National Laboratory)  Separation of Time Scales with fast rotation and weak stratification and some ideas for exascale computing 
Abstract: Earth's high latitudes stand to be among the first regions affected by climate change issues due to changes induced by melting ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. Motivated by gaining fundamental understanding of ocean dynamics at high latitudes my collaborators and I have derived new equations, based on the method of multiple scales presented in Embid and Majda (1996,1998), that address the scale separation between slow and fasttime scale dynamics in the limit of fast rotation while retaining order one affects due to stratification. The new slow equations and their conservation laws describe the {sl dynamics of TaylorProudman flows}. We also present numerical results that support the theory and that show the spontaneous creation of TaylorProudman columns. We also show recent measurements from the NSF Beaufort Gyre exploration program that show strong, deep columnar vortices with speeds as much as 30cm/s and which span the depth of the weakly stratified water column. The projection operators derived as a part of these results have mathematical and numerical implications for the development of timestepping algorithms in nextgeneration exascale climate models.  
Beth A. Wingate (Los Alamos National Laboratory)  Separation of Time Scales in fast rotation and weak stratification 
Abstract: In this work we discuss separation of time scales for rotating and stratified flow in the limit of fast rotation and weak stratification. 
Todd Arbogast  University of Texas at Austin  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Douglas N. Arnold  University of Minnesota  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Gerard Michel Awanou  Northern Illinois University  9/1/2010  6/10/2011 
Nusret Balci  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Olus N. Boratav  Corning Incorporated  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Michael P. Brenner  Harvard University  4/11/2011  4/14/2011 
Susanne C. Brenner  Louisiana State University  9/1/2010  6/10/2011 
Aycil Cesmelioglu  University of Minnesota  9/30/2010  8/30/2011 
Chi Hin Chan  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Bernardo Cockburn  University of Minnesota  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Jintao Cui  University of Minnesota  8/31/2010  8/30/2011 
Clint Dawson  University of Texas at Austin  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
James Michael Done  University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)  4/10/2011  4/16/2011 
Tom Duchamp  University of Washington  4/1/2011  6/15/2011 
Selim Esedoglu  University of Michigan  1/20/2011  6/10/2011 
Randy H. Ewoldt  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Richard S Falk  Rutgers University  4/7/2011  4/10/2011 
Oscar E. Fernandez  University of Minnesota  8/31/2010  8/30/2011 
David L. George  U.S. Geological Survey  4/13/2011  4/15/2011 
Margot Gerritsen  Stanford University  4/10/2011  4/14/2011 
Jay Gopalakrishnan  University of Florida  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Shiyuan Gu  Louisiana State University  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Maria Pia Gualdani  University of Texas at Austin  4/26/2011  4/26/2011 
Robert L. Higdon  Oregon State University  4/5/2011  4/23/2011 
David Michael Holland  New York University  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Yulia Hristova  University of Minnesota  9/1/2010  8/31/2011 
Christiane Jablonowski  University of Michigan  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Philip W. Jones  Los Alamos National Laboratory  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Eugenia Kalnay  University of Maryland  4/10/2011  4/12/2011 
Markus Keel  University of Minnesota  7/21/2008  6/30/2011 
Peter K. Kitanidis  Stanford University  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Viviane Klein  Oregon State University  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Pawel Konieczny  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Ethan Kubatko  Ohio State University  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
GuangTsai Lei  GTG Research  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Gilad Lerman  University of Minnesota  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Hengguang Li  University of Minnesota  8/16/2010  8/15/2011 
Zhi (George) Lin  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Mitchell Luskin  University of Minnesota  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Andrew J. Majda  New York University  4/10/2011  4/14/2011 
Kara Lee Maki  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Yu (David) Mao  University of Minnesota  8/31/2010  8/30/2011 
Richard P. McGehee  University of Minnesota  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Veena B. Mendiratta  AlcatelLucent  4/21/2011  4/23/2011 
Irina Mitrea  University of Minnesota  8/16/2010  6/14/2011 
Dimitrios Mitsotakis  University of Minnesota  10/27/2010  8/31/2011 
Robert W. Numrich  City University of New York (CUNY)  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Samantha M. Oestreicher  University of Minnesota  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Darcy E. Ogden  Scripps Institution of Oceanography  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Alexandra Ortan  University of Minnesota  9/16/2010  6/15/2011 
Cecilia OrtizDuenas  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Katharine Ott  University of Kentucky  2/20/2011  4/27/2011 
Iordanka N. Panayotova  Old Dominion University  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
EunHee Park  Louisiana State University  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Malgorzata Peszynska  Oregon State University  4/10/2011  4/21/2011 
Fatih M. Porikli  Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories  4/7/2011  4/9/2011 
Alain Pumir  Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Weifeng (Frederick) Qiu  University of Minnesota  8/31/2010  8/30/2011 
Vincent QuennevilleBelair  University of Minnesota  9/16/2010  6/15/2011 
Fernando Reitich  University of Minnesota  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Juan Mario Restrepo  University of Arizona  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Mauricio Santillana  Harvard University  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Fadil Santosa  University of Minnesota  7/1/2008  8/30/2011 
Guglielmo Scovazzi  Sandia National Laboratories  4/10/2011  4/16/2011 
George R Sell  University of Minnesota  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Shuanglin Shao  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Panagiotis Stinis  University of Minnesota  9/1/2010  6/30/2011 
Liyeng Sung  Louisiana State University  9/1/2010  6/15/2011 
Nicolae Tarfulea  Purdue University, Calumet  9/1/2010  6/15/2011 
Luis Tenorio  Colorado School of Mines  3/27/2011  6/10/2011 
Dimitar Trenev  University of Minnesota  9/1/2009  8/31/2011 
Richard Tsai  University of Texas at Austin  3/3/2011  5/1/2011 
Chris Volinsky  AT&T Laboratories  Research  4/13/2011  4/14/2011 
Joannes Jacobus Westerink  University of Notre Dame  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Beth A. Wingate  Los Alamos National Laboratory  4/10/2011  4/15/2011 
Lingzhou Xue  University of Minnesota  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Ganghua Yuan  Northeast (Dongbei) Normal University  4/27/2011  7/27/2011 
David A. Yuen  University of Minnesota  4/11/2011  4/15/2011 
Giovanni Zanzotto  Università di Padova  4/8/2011  4/18/2011 