Operational Modeling and Biodefense

Even before the September 11 terrorist attacks, the multiple threats posed by bioterrorism had been scrutinized for some time. The greatest attention has been devoted to identifying and classifying various offensive biological agents. The Centers for Disease Control describes three agent/disease categories in descending order of threat (see http://www.bt.cdc.gov/Agent/Agentlist.asp). The most serious concerns are those contained in Category A: anthrax, botulism, plague, smallpox, tularemia, and viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola.

While epidemiologists and other medical scientists have invested considerable time and energy in describing the mode of transmission/spread and disease spectrum of potential offensive biological agents, much less attention has been devoted to the analysis of actual biodefense proposals. The deliberate mailing of anthrax and consequent illness and fatalities provided a bioterror "proof of concept," and also illustrated the inadequacy of decision-making systems in place at the time to respond to such an attack. It seems clear that the actual logistics and operations of biodefense prevention and response policies, in addition to the specifics of whatever bioterror agents are involved, will determine the consequences of future bioterror attacks. In short, what we do to bioterror matters as much as what bioterror does to us.

This conference is the first to highlight the role of mathematical modeling in analyzing the operational and logistical aspects of biodefense planning and response. Presentations will range from discussions of the general threats posed by terrorism to global supply chains to the specifics of proposed emergency responses to a smallpox attack. Issues expected to surface include (but are not limited to) the personnel requirements and assignments required to respond to bioterror events; required inventories of various vaccines and their optimal deployment; and optimal quarantine and vaccination policy. Throughout we will emphasize the importance of actual operations, whether in normally functioning systems (e.g. the US postal service) or in emergency response (e.g. contact tracing and vaccination).

This meeting will bring together a diverse group of scientists, engineers, and others from fields such as operations research, decision science, mathematics, economics, epidemiology, infectious disease, and public health to explore the use of mathematical techniques in countering the threat of terrorism.