Long-term Time Series Forecasting and Data Generated by Complex Systems
Data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence are all practices implemented by humans in the context of a complex and ever-changing world. This talk will focus on the challenges of long-term, seasonal, multicyclic time series forecasting in logistics. I will discuss algorithms and implementations including STL, TBATS, and Prophet, with additional attention to the data-generating processes in trucking and the US economy and the importance in algorithm selection of understanding these data-generating processes. Subject matter expertise must always inform mathematical exploration in industry and indeed leads to asking much more interesting mathematical questions.